In search of The Correct Line: Nominations close peacefully

It all ended quickly. Uganda’s third general election since the promulgation of the 1995 Constitution has a busy signal outside the window. The 2+2 race is on. The first 2 represents President Yoweri Museveni and his erstwhile challenger Dr Kizza Besigye meeting for the third time in 2011. The second two represent new faces from Uganda’s oldest parties, Norbert Mao for the Democratic Party and Olara

Otunnu from the Uganda Peoples’ Congress.

Not to say that each of these groups has some splinter form running as well. The 1996 and 2001 Campaign Museveni Task Force chair Jaberi Bidandi Ssali is running on his own with UPM’s 1980 symbol. So is Ms. Beti Namisango Kamya, formerly FDC envoy with her new outfit, UFA. DP not to be left behind has Samwiri Lubega, a former UK DP official, completing the mini-league of the candidates.

In terms of issues: candidates will scream themselves hoarse on what they intend to accomplish, refer whoever is interested to their manifestos, which very few people read. Mr Museveni seems to be running on a platform to end corruption - 20 years after promising a fundamental change in this direction by creating the office of Ombudsman- the IGG. Today corruption has a plethora of agencies dedicated to its cause: The Office of Auditor General, an invigorated PAC in Parliament, the IGG, the Anti-Corruption Court, and Minister for Ethics and Integrity.

In fact, Mr Museveni sometimes acts as his own institution refereeing the parade so to speak. Procurement of public goods in Uganda is a 14-step process, which when all the bottlenecks are added, can easily add to more than 20 steps. Just like chits from ministers during the 1980s were important to distribute essential commodities, mastering the procurement process is a task that has remained impossible even for the government itself.

Outside corruption: a tired song, candidate Museveni is working very “hard” to please all sorts of voters. For the first time, voters born after 1980 are a majority of the electorate and you may critique his music skills; the “youthful” President Museveni earning his bread is far more imaginative than the skulls and the spicy language he used to describe his opponents in the past elections. The numbers from YouTube may soon be in recording a very successful hit from the 67-year-old former warrior.

Col. Kizza Besigye is banking on his physical presence and personality to push voters to the “correct line” an analogy that only he can take on Museveni and assume the levers of power. FDC of today like maturing organisations has had to undergo an internal metamorphosis throwing off challengers and pretenders to the throne; Ms Kamya now finds herself in her own party.

Dr Besigye seems to have muted the biggest criticism of Museveni- overstay in power that his own opening speech chose to recycle the federalism a governance issue rather than the most important political issue in Uganda after 2011- who takes over or what will the rules be for replacing Museveni. Should this high stakes game fail, he runs the risk of soiling the two-term argument for a long time; if he wins marginally or if he loses relegating the fundamental issue of governance- federalism for a long time.

Many influential personalities in Buganda including ex-Katikkiro Joseph M. Ssemogerere have hitched their wagons on to this train and many have horror stories to tell. Mengo for its part, has never told the total story about the 2005 Constitutional talks debacle for which we have a Third Term to thank.

DP and UPC have a much easier job. Expectations are much lower and will be easier to exceed. Olara Otunnu - fresh from being pushed out of IPC- IPC’s de-facto running-mate position first used to play UPC off of DP was eventually offered to Ssuubi. UPC’s return will be measured by how it recovers from total internal hemorrhage of its ranks of elected officials that have reduced its parliamentary strength from 10 to six

For UPC to succeed, it must create some form of firewall in areas that are now all very competitive - Teso, Lango and West Nile: This is far from the lofty welcome the intelligentsia extended to Mr Otunnu last year when he returned home from 25 years in exile.

DP’s Mao rounds the 2+2 matrix. DP birthing pains are shifting leftward; probably left of UPC, NRM and FDC. Given the rotten state of Uganda’s public affairs, it is not clear Ugandans will want another round of 100 parastatals to suck more blood from the long suffering taxpayers; as if the 99 statutory bodies and agencies that replaced the old parastatals mostly dominated by friends and relatives of the powerful have not done enough harm. If Mao can wriggle himself out of this, he could be the Change and generation Next candidate. Ugandans in the past two days felt good about themselves from the party scenes that covered Uganda’s potholes with human beings for a day. Kiboko squad got a good break!

Mr Ssemogerere, an attorney and social entrepreneur, practices law in New York
 
Author:  Karoli Ssemogerere  (email the author @kssemoge@gmail.com)
Source: Daily Monitor, Posted Thursday, October 28 2010 at 00:00