Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Kagame’s former allies on how Rwanda can avert the looming political crisis

In our previous   edition, Gen. Kayumba Nyamwasa, Rwanda’s former Chief of Staff; Col. Patrick Karegeya, Rwanda’s former director of external intelligence; Gerald Gahima, the country’s former Prosecutor General and Maj. Dr Theogene Rudasingwa, Kagame’s former director of cabinet, analysed the political situation obtaining in Rwanda today, and its grave implications. In a joint policy paper in possession of The Newsline, they conclude Rwanda is headed for doom. Here, they offer their thoughts on how this impending crisis can be averted.

►Rwanda has two governments, one formal and the other informal, and the latter controls the nation
►Rwanda’s security apparatus should be reformed, and a new ‘care-taker’ gov’t should be formed
►Kagame should be held accountable to gross human rights violations during pre- and post genocide Rwanda
►A delicate balance should be struck, guaranteeing popular political participation and safety of the minorities shattered hopes

The hopes for a democratic, peaceful and stable Rwanda that the overthrow of the rump government that carried out the genocide once inspired, have dissipated.  The issues that have previously driven conflict in Rwanda remain unresolved.  Rwanda is, by many accounts, again, in grave risk of very violent conflict.
Such conflict is not inevitable, but neither is it easily avoidable.  Whether Rwanda will again have to endure atrocious conflict or find a way to overcome the forces responsible for intractable conflict and transition to a peaceful, stable democracy will depend on the policies and actions of many players, including President Kagame himself, Rwandan society at large and, indeed, the international community. Positive actions have got to be taken if Rwanda is to avoid a recurrence of the tragedy that the country experienced during the 1990s and before. 
Following are some of the steps that may need to be taken to avert a new catastrophe and set Rwanda on a path towards security, peace, democracy, genuine reconciliation, national healing, and sustainable development.  The minimum steps that we believe need to be taken to achieve this objective include the following: Promoting freedom as the foundation on which to build peace and shared prosperity for all Rwandans; undertaking a genuine, inclusive, unconditional and comprehensive National dialogue on the nature and causes of the country’s major  problems, and on a compact on the future of the country; establishing a New National Partnership Government to lead Rwanda through the transition to democracy; and engaging the international community including, in particular, Rwanda’s neighbours,  to support Rwanda’s reform agenda.

Freedom as a pillar forpeace and prosperity

The process of change that Rwanda needs if it is to avoid another return to violent conflict cannot begin until the current government changes its attitude towards fundamental human rights.  The ideas of freedom, justice, peace and prosperity are inter-related.  Freedom is the cornerstone of peace and sustainable development.  A free society cherishes and upholds justice.  Justice nurtures and promotes peace.  Peace in turn unleashes the creative potential of a people to pursue self-fulfilment, leading to prosperity.  Freedom places choice in our hands to bring about a positive and shared future.  Freedom begins with respect for the most fundamental of human rights.
Long-term peace, stability and sustainable development are not possible in a repressive environment such as the one that currently prevails in Rwanda. Without freedom, Rwanda will be condemned to recurrent violence, physical destruction and the death of innocent people.  It is not possible for citizens to engage their government on the need for peaceful political reform while the government remains oblivious to its duty to guarantee respect for fundamental human rights.
The struggle for political change in Rwanda must necessarily begin with new attitudes about human rights, especially the sanctity of human life and integrity of the person.  The duo must be placed at the center of the reform agenda.  Before Rwanda can seriously embark on the path of political reform that is inevitable if the country is to avoid renewed war and bloodshed, the security services of Rwanda must stop committing egregious human rights abuses, including arbitrary arrests and detentions, torture, politically motivated criminal prosecutions and detentions, extra-judicial killings and enforced disappearances of opponents and critics of the government.
A critical part of the process of enlarging the opportunity for citizens to enjoy freedom involves addressing the question of impunity.  There will be no progress towards democracy or sustainable stability until the problem of impunity in Rwandan society is confronted and addressed.  There can be no prospects for reform while agents of the state continue to torture, maim and kill opponents and critics of the regime at will.  As a prelude to reform, President Kagame’s government will have to take steps to end the impunity for human rights violations that members of the security services now enjoy.  The government must begin to investigate and prosecute, in good faith, crimes committed by the security services. 
As for human rights violations committed before, during, and after the genocide, individuals responsible for the violations against Hutu should be held accountable though not necessarily in a retributive justice way. The one-sided justice championed by Kagame regime is counterproductive in terms of reconciliation between Hutu and Tutsi, and it’s a seed for future violence. In this effort to end impunity, the focus should remain an accountability that enhances chances for reconciliation.
Military  officers who have in the past committed very grave human rights violations, whom the government is yet unwilling to prosecute, must at the very minimum, in the interim at least, be discharged from the army and security services. Civilian and military courts must begin to provide the remedies, including damages, those victims of human rights abuses are accorded by law.
For reform to have chances of success, the government must allow the people the freedom to express and exchange ideas.  Creating conditions that make the exchange and diffusion of ideas is a critical part of the process of expanding freedom.  The government must learn to live with divergent views, to tolerate critical voices.  Opposition political parties must have the freedom to organise and to hold government accountable.  Civil society must be allowed to perform its watch-dog role in monitoring the performance of government.  Independent media must be allowed to publish. 
If the government cannot bring itself to respect these fundamental rights, prospects for peaceful change are remote.

Rwanda’s New Deal: Undertaking an inclusive national dialogue

The 1994 war and genocide were brought to an end by the outright military victory of the RPF. As a result of its military victory, the RPF had unfettered discretion in envisioning and in implementing the reconstruction of post-genocide Rwanda.  The RPF has rarely consulted other political parties or civil society on major issues relating to planning for the future of the country. The common practice has been for the RPF to make decisions on issues affecting the country and to inform the compliant parties that remain part of the government afterwards.  When the RPF has taken the trouble to consult other political parties, it has not seriously taken their views into account.  The RPF has not only failed to organise an honest debate about the country’s past and future, but it also actively suppresses independent debate about major issues that still divide Rwandan society.
The RPF has sought both to impose its own understanding of the country’s history and its vision of Rwanda’s future upon the rest of Rwandan society.
The over-riding consideration behind all the decisions that the RPF has made during the time that it has been in control of government has been to protect and entrench its monopoly of political power.  As a result, post-genocide Rwanda has not had the benefit of an open, inclusive national debate on the root causes of the political problems that the country has experienced and on strategies for ensuring a peaceful and stable future for the country.  As a result of the RPF’s unilateralist approach to the reconstruction of Rwanda in the aftermath of war and genocide, and its refusal to sanction an open debate on the country’s future, the government’s initiatives to promote national reconciliation have largely failed.  The country remains deeply divided.  The majority of the population feel excluded and marginalised. 
Feelings of mutual mistrust and fear continue to fester.  The middle-class that run the country prior to the genocide remains in exile. The Hutu majority feel marginalised and excluded.  The majority of the Tutsi community is disenchanted as well.  For many Rwandans, the path of violent conflict appears to be the only option of making right the injustice, discrimination and abuse that they feel they have been subjected to.  Groups committed to the overthrow of the government (and possibly the destruction of the Tutsi community) remain active in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Internally, Rwanda is becoming increasingly unstable, particularly as a result of the evident break-down of cohesion within the RPA, which is evidenced by the defections of former integrated Ex-FAR officers, including General Emmanauel Habyarimana and Col. Balthazar Ndengeyinka and original officers such as Gen. Kayumba Nyamwasa and Col. Patrick Karegeya (among many others), and the imprisonment inside Rwanda of other senior military officers, including General Munyakazi, General Karenzi Karake and General Charles Muhire.  The nature of defections and purges that have affected  RPA provides an indication that the problems that the RPA faces cuts across the board and do not affect the Hutu or Tutsi in the Military exclusively.
 The likelihood that some of the many individuals and groups that are disaffected with the regime may decide to use violent means to overthrow it is very high.
In order to defuse the crisis that Rwanda is facing, it remains very necessary for Rwandan society to have an honest dialogue about the causes of the problems that Rwanda faces and the solutions to those problems.  Rwanda cannot move beyond the current quagmire without an honest, inclusive and comprehensive debate on the many issues that drive conflict in the country.  Some of the issues that such a dialogue would address (issues on which the RPF does not yet see eye-to-eye with its opponents and critics today) include Rwanda’s history; the issue of ethnicity; the nature and causes of the conflicts that Rwandan society has gone through; the state of political governance in Rwanda today;  democratisation and  apportionment of power and control of state institutions (especially the military and security services) in a newly democratic Rwanda; strategies for promoting reconciliation and peace-building, protection of the minority from marginalisation, mechanisms to prevent the ‘tyranny of  majorities’, exclusion or atrocity in any post-transition political system and Rwanda’s relations with its neighbours.
The RPF has, to date, resisted all calls for dialogue on the problems that confront the country. The organisation opposes such dialogue out of fear that the dialogue could lead to calls for it to share power more fairly with its opponents.  Nevertheless, this kind of dialogue remains indispensable as the only way of avoiding violent conflict that appears almost inevitable if the Rwandan government cannot find a solution to the problems relating to political governance that the country faces.  National reconciliation and durable stability will remain elusive until Rwandan society can address these issues and reach a consensus about how to deal with them. Hence, there is a compelling need for the organisation of a national dialogue about the issues. The dialogue must be transparent, inclusive and comprehensive.  The outcome of the proposed dialogue would be a grand compact or bargain that would set the basis for continuing collaboration in building a free Rwanda.

Establishing a care taker government

The reforms proposed in the foregoing paragraphs could only be implemented by a new government comprising representatives of the current regime and the opposition. The transition to democracy that Rwanda embarked upon at the end of the genocide has failed. The RPF has created a political system which denies the people the right to exercise their right to choose and change government.  The country’s laws make it impossible for individuals and organizations other than the RPF to participate meaningfully in politics.  Law enforcement, judicial and security institutions are manipulated to suppress the exercise of fundamental human rights of citizens who are not members of the RPF.  The RPF justifies the draconian restrictions on the right to political participation on the grounds that the rules that it has set are necessary to prevent manipulation of ethnicity and recurrence of genocide.  The real motive for these restrictions is to insulate the RPF from political competition, and entrench President Kagame‘s absolute rule.
As a result of the limitations that the RPF imposes on the right of other political forces to organise and advocate their policies freely, Rwanda’s government lacks popular legitimacy.  The government’s lack of legitimacy has implications for peace and stability, particularly since government is not only repressive, but is also perceived as a minority regime that excludes and marginalises the majority of the population, the Hutu community.
The RPF’s reluctance to embrace democracy is driven, among other factors, by fears that democratic elections could endanger the Tutsi minority by bringing Hutu extremists to power.  It is self-evident, however, that a minority regime cannot impose its will on the majority forever. Rwanda’s minority government has the challenge of either negotiating a peaceful, managed transition to democracy or risking an eventual overthrow by violent means.  There is a need to devise a consensus democracy that makes safe  Hutu, Tutsi and and Twa their respective fears and aspirations.
If Rwanda cannot yet embrace democracy, it can at least begin to practice meaningful sharing of power between and among communities, and between the government and its opponents.
In the aftermath of the genocide, the RPF promised to abide by the power-sharing arrangements that had been agreed upon in the Arusha Peace Agreement.  The RPF’s experiment with power- sharing was, however, very short-lived.  Within a year, opposition politicians had been ousted from government.  The trend since has been the consolidation of the RPF’s monopoly of political power.  The political parties that participate in the RPF-dominated government do not have any power or influence in government.  They are merely tolerated for the purpose of lending legitimacy to the government by giving the appearance of political plurality and competition. Rwanda has two parallel governments, one formal and the other informal.  The informal branch determines policies and effectively runs the government; the formal branch gives a semblance of normalcy and legitimacy.
In the light of the RPF’s antecedents in marginalizing other political forces, dividing and destroying other political parties, and making it difficult for other political organizations to operate freely in Rwanda, it would not be realistic to expect the RPF alone to implement the reforms that Rwanda needs to undertake if it is to avoid change through violent conflict.  The only realistic option for peaceful political reform lies in setting up a new interim government (the New National Partnership Government, led by the RPF if necessary) that would be a balanced partnership between the RPF, its opponents and other segments of Rwandan society charged with leading the country during a transition period.  The New National Partnership Government would, in particular, have to include leaders whom the Hutu majority consider legitimate as representatives of their community.  No meaningful political reforms can take place while the RPF President Kagame and the RPF continue to dominate the Rwandan state in the manner that they do today. 
Such a New National Partnership Government would have responsibility for determining the minimum reforms that would have to be implemented immediately to make the process of transition transparent, fair and accountable (including freeing political parties, restoring freedom of the press, permitting  the civil society to have independence to perform its proper watch-dog role, disbanding informal security networks that today serve to persecute opponents of the regime, initiating minimum reforms of security sector institutions (RDF, Police, National Security Service, Prisons, DMI) necessary to permit a credible and fair process of transition,  organizing the national dialogue (referred to above); organizing national consultations on a new constitutional framework, organising voluntary return of Rwandan refugee, and organizing genuinely free and fair elections within a specific timeline and agreed framework.
No meaningful reform can take place without a minimum of separation of powers and checks and balances to ensure an even playing field during the transition.

 Engaging the international community to support the reform agenda.

Political reform in societies in transition must necessarily be nationally owned and driven to succeed.  However, the international community can play a positive role in supporting and promoting political change.  Policies of foreign governments and international institutions, in respect of countries going through political transition after violent conflict or authoritarian rule, matter.  How the international community relates to the government of a state in transition has implications for the country’s human rights practices.  Governments in transition after conflict care about the policies of major foreign powers on their human rights practices.  The manner in which the international community engages political actors in countries undergoing or recovering from violent conflict involving gross human rights abuses or authoritarian rule sends signals to those actors - signals that either promote greater respect for human rights or encourage continuation of a culture of impunity. 
The international community (and, in particular, the governments of the major global powers and economies) could play a useful role in combating impunity for gross human rights violations and promoting greater respect for human rights through their diplomacy and other policies. The silence of international actors on human rights practices of states prone to human rights abuses, some argue, can lead to complicity.
The international community has a very critical role to play in helping to avert the calamity that is certain to befall Rwanda in the event that a peaceful negotiated settlement of Rwanda’s crisis is not reached.  Prior to the genocide, members of the Organization of African Unity (OAU) practiced a policy of non-interference in the affairs of sister states that allowed governments to commit gross human rights abuses against their citizens without risk of censure.  Human rights problems facing communities in Africa were not an issue of serious concern to governments and institutions outside Africa either.  Most governments found it acceptable to conduct business with regimes responsible for atrocities against their own citizens.  In this environment, the warning signs of the genocide that was threatening Rwanda were ignored. 
The well-documented gross human rights violations that the Habyarimana regime committed against the Tutsi prior to the genocide attracted little outside attention and even less condemnation.  Even after the genocide started, few governments expressed concern or regret about it.  Hardly any seriously considered doing anything about it.  Some governments even continued to have military cooperation with the rump government that was carrying out the genocide and to sell arms to it.
The Rwandan genocide compelled the international community to reflect on its responsibility to confront atrocity and gross human rights violations occurring in situations of violent conflict. Many individual leaders and institutions in the international community re-affirmed the old pledge “never again” to stand by while repressive governments commit atrocities.  In practice, little has since changed in how governments continue to deal with regimes that are responsible for gross human rights abuses against their citizens, particularly in Africa. The criminal justice system that the international community has established to bring perpetrators of atrocity to justice is more likely to bring perpetrators of atrocity to justice if they too have been vanquished in military conflicts.  Governments still show little inclination to hold perpetrators of gross human rights abuses to account if they remain in power.  President Kagame is a major beneficiary of the weaknesses of the still evolving system of accountability for atrocity and other gross human rights.  In spite of President Kagame’s human rights record, governments and international institutions are still loath to hold him or his officials accountable.
The choices that foreign governments and international institutions make as to whether or not to support improvements in human rights practices or political governance in general, and in a particular post-conflict settings, may have a strong bearing on whether the society in question stays on an old and familiar path (of unaccountable government, repression and authoritarian rule) or makes a break with the past and opts for genuine democracy, the rule of law and respect for human rights.
The international community has failed to engage President Kagame constructively on issues relating to human rights and governance in general.  The failure of the international community to hold President Kagame and his government accountable for gross human rights violations and to demand the lifting of restrictions on the exercise of fundamental freedoms undermines prospects for peaceful political reform in Rwanda. 
Rwanda’s partners, especially her neighbours, the major world powers, and governments that provide the development assistance on which Rwanda so heavily depends, need to end the attitude of denial and to begin to confront the truth about the shortcomings of Rwanda’s leadership and the quality of the country’s governance. Governments and international institutions must begin to think long-term, and to put the interests of the people of Rwanda (as opposed to relations with the government and the absolute ruler of the day) first. Governments of democracies, in particular, must rise beyond the guilt shame of their failures over the 1994 genocide and begin to deal with issues relating to Rwanda’s governance strategically. 
Many in the international community rationalise failure to confront the truth about the grave situation in Rwanda by claiming that President Kagame is an irreplaceable source of stability.  On the contrary, President Kagame’s policies and actions fuel conflict and instability.  By failing to hold President Kagame to account, the international community does a great disservice, rather than help, the people of Rwanda.  In failing to engage Rwanda’s government on its human rights practices in general, and on its autocratic system of government in general, the international community betrays the same kind of indifference that preceded (and some would argue, encouraged) the genocide and risks being accused again, at some point in future, of complicity for atrocities that ought to have been foreseen and prevented.
President Paul Kagame and the RPF have squandered the opportunity that history presented to the RPF to move Rwanda beyond its history of social polarization, repressive government and endemic conflict.  The issues that drive conflict in Rwanda have not been resolved, despite the government’s claims to the contrary.  Rwanda remains deeply divided, unstable and very vulnerable to violent conflict.  President Kagame’s disastrous record in government (including responsibility for war crimes and crimes against humanity, suppression of legitimate demands for democracy, gross human rights violations of every kind, including murder against political opponents and critics of his government, utter disregard for the law and judicial institutions, and massive corruption) leaves no doubt that he will go down in history as one of Africa’s worst dictators.  The short-comings, failures and crimes of Rwanda’s previous presidents pale in comparison with excesses for which Paul Kagame has been responsible during his stewardship of the government of Rwanda.
Minority government as repressive and unaccountable as Rwanda’s current regime cannot remain in office forever. 
Neither brute force nor the financial and material support of external backers can sustain a government that the people overwhelmingly consider to be illegitimate in power indefinitely. 
Change of government in Rwanda is as necessary as it is inevitable. The people of Rwanda have a legitimate right to demand and expect such change.  The best hope for enabling Rwanda to avoid inevitable conflict of catastrophic proportions is to promote a peaceful settlement that will recognise the right of the majority to determine their own destiny and to enjoy their fundamental rights, while addressing the concerns (especially for security and the risk of political and economic marginalization) of minorities.
The people of Rwanda, together with rest of the international community, have a moral duty to work to end this repressive system of government.  Rwanda is literally again on the brink of an abyss.  The consequences of failing to act to reverse the drift toward violent conflict and bloodshed could be as tragic as the events of 1994.  In the aftermath of the 1994 genocide, most of the international community made pledges to never again allow atrocious conflict on the scale of what happened in Rwanda then to take place on their watch.  The complicity of collusion and silence that contributed to making the 1994 genocide possible ought not to be repeated.  The manner in which the international community has engaged the government of Rwanda to date clearly indicates that the lessons that ought to have been drawn from the 1994 genocide have not been learnt.
Change in Rwanda’s political situation is inevitable.  Realistically, however, change will not come to Rwanda easily or within a short time.  The challenge that Rwanda and her partners have is to engineer peaceful transition to inclusive, democratic governance in time to avoid renewed widespread violence and sectarian bloodshed.  The process of bringing about that necessary change can be gradual.  The right place to start in bringing about such change is to begin by holding Rwanda’s government accountable for the respect of the fundamental freedoms of her people, especially the right to life and integrity of the person, freedoms of expression, and political participation. 
The next priority is to ensure that Rwanda changes its laws on political participation to allow alternative voices that are more than a symbolic presence on the political landscape.  The international community should engage the government of Rwanda on the need to organise a comprehensive dialogue on the future of the country. 
Implementation of the outcome of dialogue could be entrusted to a coalition government that   includes the opposition that is currently excluded from political participation. Such an endeavour is not a negation of the dream of creating a new Rwandan identity, devoid of ethnicity. On the contrary, such an effort, based on the realities of our time, seeks to ultimately nurture a new Rwandan identity by weaving freedom into the very fabric of Rwandan society. Freedom, good governance, the rule of law, democracy and shared prosperity become the glue that holds Rwanda’s ethnic groups (and other diverse elements) into an enduring nation. Without this, Rwanda is doomed again.

Source: 2008 - 2010 Newsline Ea, Sept-Oct 2010 

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