UGANDA: Were Bukenya, Mbabazi removed from the queue?

Is former Security Minister Amama Mbabazi now closer to the presidential queue or has he been put to out to pasture in his new posting as prime minister in a political set up where the country has an executive President? Can he supervise his Cabinet colleagues given that there are questions about his personality and accessibility?

How about Prof. Gilbert Bukenya, the former vice president. Will he make a comeback or will he now be left to vegetate as MP for Busiro North and that is if he defeats an ongoing petition against his election in the High Court?

Answers to these questions could shed some light on the vexed matter of succession if President Museveni decides to call it quits after his current term ends in 2016.
The two men have featured prominently in the debate about who could replace President Museveni; they have openly clashed over the post of Secretary General of the ruling party, a position which Mr Mbabazi currently holds but is set to relinquish. In all this, they have each built clearly defined power bases in the National Resistance Movement party.

Early in the week, Prof. Bukenya told this newspaper that although he was out of Cabinet, he would remain strong in the party -- carrying out “mobilisation”. He also said that he will not hesitate to criticise both the party and Parliament whenever the two institutions go wrong.

To help us answer these questions, Sunday Monitor interviewed a range of leading academics and politicians on the recent appointment of Mr Mbabazi to the post of Prime Minister by President Museveni.

In naming him Prime Minister, President Museveni was careful to emphasise that it would be imprudent for Mr Mbabazi to remain as Security Minister as well as the Secretary of NRM.
The reason being that it will compromise his effectiveness in defending policy and supervising government work both in Parliament and on the ground.

But to others who are knowledgeable about how Mr Museveni operates, the changes were deliberate and partly intended to extinguish the bickering in NRM which has largely been driven by the opposing camps in the fight for primacy in the purported queue.

Made real
A former comrade of the two in Cabinet who sought anonymity in order to speak freely, told this paper that the long awaited delinking of Mr Mbabazi from Security and the party politics had finally been made real.

Nevertheless, he said the removal of Prof. Bukenya from Vice Presidency could be part of the wider plan by Mr Museveni to have the wings of the two nemeses jostling for his replacement clipped, thereby snuffing out, or at least suspending, any debate about his own political future.

“It’s only you who don’t understand Mzee (Mr Museveni). He will pull you nearer him and before you realise you have been dropped. He will possibly read reports but he won’t disappoint you when you expect it but when you least expect and so us let us watch,” he said, adding, “and for Bukenya, I cannot speculate, he is not a person to dismiss as finished.”

Another person who worked with both gentlemen is former spy now turned opposition politician Maj. John Kazoora who faulted the two for publicly bickering for the highest office when Mr Museveni is still alive and interested.

“Mr Museveni is still here until he dies, he can live for more 30 years. So, for those people; Mbabazi and Bukenya, to think that they were going to replace him was day dreaming. Even his son shouldn’t think about it when he is still alive,” Maj. Kazoora commented. Former minister Edward Babu believes that whereas the two are rivals over who is stronger and therefore better placed to replace Mr Museveni, Prof. Bukenya miscalculated by clashing with his junior and at the same time his integrity was questioned given the numerous scandals he got involved in.

“Could the argument between Bukenya and Mbabazi have gone overboard? Did Bukenya step so low to fight a minister and by the way do you think the Nakku saga was a smear campaign against him?”

Veteran politician Yona Kanyomozi, however, underscores the fact that whereas the post of Prime Minister is recognised in the Constitution, its relevance in the Ugandan context does not carry weight because the country is run by an executive president. He said having removed Prof. Bukenya from play, Mr Museveni could have decided to also remove Mr Mbabazi from the much-talked about queue so that both men are in effectively neutralised.
“The Secretary General is the strongest man in the party and once they have removed you from the party then this is to prepare you to retire. The premiership is non-existent because we have an executive president,” Mr Kanyomozi said.

Makerere University don Edward Kakonge concurs with Mr Kanyomozi but said that the removal of Mr Mbabazi from Security and direct handling of the inner workings of NRM politics could have been a result of the resolutions agreed at the party’s national assembly last year that bars a serving minister from simultaneously holding the job of SG.

“When I saw that thing (the resolution to bar a minister from being secretary general), I also wondered whether he (the President) wanted to distance him from the party. In their own NRM they passed a resolution to delink party office from government. But this man (Mr Mbabazi) may think that he was promoted yet he has been demoted and there could a hidden agenda,” Prof. Kakonge said.

“It is too early to speculate but I cannot dismiss that the removal of Bukenya from vice-presidency and Mbabazi from security and SG of NRM at the same time when they both have been fighting to replace Museveni himself,” he added.

Former Ndorwa West MP and city businessman Shem Bageine, who hails from Kigezi sub-region like Mbabazi, welcomed the appointment of Mr Mbabazi but said he did not expect anybody as a minister to be seen as a tribal chief but rather a national minister to serve the country.

“Anybody who is appointed a minister or any other post serves the country and I don’t want politics of tribalism or sectarianism. He is not a leader for Bakiga only,” Mr Bageine said.

Another source that did not want to be quoted because he lacks authority to speak to the press freely said whereas Prof. Bukenya was dropped and Mbabazi reshuffled to post of Prime Minister, he is no different from Bukenya because both men have had their political ambitions clipped. “Bukenya cannot come out to oppose Museveni, government or join the opposition because there is a case open against him like Mbabazi. So both men have no forum to champion their ambitions,” the source said.

Same cloth
Both politicians were adversely named in the post-Chogm investigations into how billions of shillings meant for the hosting of 2007 Commonwealth summit were abused.
NRM Spokesperson Mary Karooro Okurut, however, dismisses the above views as rumour and allegations meant to create cliques within the party.

“I don’t know about queues in NRM and as to those allegations, Cabinet formations are a prerogative of the President. That is rumour mongering, the President knows the best why he made changes,” Ms Okurut said.

She added: “People shouldn’t pretend. They want to cause cliques in NRM for their selfish interests. He said he picked them for their hard work”
Now that several NRM party members have quietly welcomed the reshuffle of Mr Mbabazi, it would appear that the race for succession has again been blown wide open – but with only the President as the most prominent fixture on the field. They say Mr Mbabazi had allegedly sidelined others to further his presidential ambitions.

They also cite the non-functional party secretariat as his undoing. Now that is all probably water under the bridge. Both Prof. Bukenya and Mr Mbabazi are reported to have had a blessing from Mr Museveni way back in 2005 when he tried reconciling them. Mr Museveni is reported to have met each of them individually later and suggested how each of the two was capable of replacing him as president.

Consequently, the two developed a cold attitude towards each other, marshalling their supporters. It is said Mr Mbabazi considered Prof. Bukenya a newcomer with little connection and contribution to the formation of the party, as Prof. Bukenya got the blessing of some of the bush war Generals who have never recognised Mr Mbabazi as one of them as they considered him an usurper since his contribution to the 1981- ’86 bush war which brought Mr Museveni to power was perceived little. The contest appears to have – for now – arrived at an inconclusive pass.

Source: Daily Monitor, Posted  Sunday, May 29 2011 at 00:00

Author: Richard Wanambwa  (email the author)

Former Vice President Gilbert Bukenya and ruling party General Secretary Amama Mbabazi have for the last six years been thought to be in line to replace President Museveni. But have the recent reshuffles affected the duo’s chances of ascension to the country’s top seat? Sunday Monitor’s Richard Wanambwa examines their fate.