Gen. Bosco Ntaganda spends a lot of his time looking over his shoulder these days. The army commander, who was indicted by the International Criminal Court for abuses in Ituri as chief of staff of Thomas Lubanga' UPC, is still deputy commander of Amani Leo operations in the eastern Congo. He was put in that position in early 2009, after the arrest of Laurent Nkunda, and has explicitly been cited by Rwandan and (some) Congolese officials as "the lynchpin of stability" in the region.
How can someone who has been accused of so many human rights abuses, in Ituri and the Kivus, against the civilians population but also against his own commander, be seen thus? Bosco was given the command of the ex-CNDP troops after Nkunda left, and is seen as crucial part of the deal that saw Kinshasa and Kigali make peace, semi-integrate CNDP troops into the Congolese army, and jointly attack the FDLR.
But this might be changing.
Last week, two top Nkunda commanders - Colonels Innocent Kabundi and Richard Bisamaza - departed for Kinshasa, possibly to take up positions in the West of the country. This kind of deployment outside of the Kivus has long been anathema to the CNDP, who know that they will lose their strength (and their protection rackets) if redeployed. In addition, Bisamaza and Kabundi were once seen as Bosco loyalists, and Bosco reportedly ordered them not to fly to Kinshasa. But they refused. (Some also say that Nkunda's younger brother, Seko, was part of the Kinshasa trip).
The Bosco wing of the CNDP suddenly began to express its discontent with its current lot, despite the high profile, lucrative positions they currently occupy within military operations. A letter, allegedly signed by Bosco himself, was sent to MONUSCO in Goma on March 24, saying the CNDP wanted to return to peace talks. And a delegation of Tutsi community leaders in North Kivu met yesterday with MONUSCO in Goma, expressing its disapproval of Bosco's ICC arrest warrant and warning against his arrest. Why all this noise if Bosco has nothing to worry about?
Finally, diplomats appear to be taking advantage of the post-electoral turmoil to push some policy points. The compromise with Kabila's government seems to be: we have accepted the fraudulent elections, but if you want international legitimacy, carry out some quick-and-easy reforms. Arresting Bosco is part of this, and on my recent trip to Kinshasa his name was on the lips of many diplomats. (This blog by Tony Gambino and Lisa Shannon in the NYT contributed to this push.)
It doesn't hurt that many Congolese army officers and security officials barely conceal their dislike for the general - the former commander of North Kivu operations, Col. Bobo Kakudji, used to be liberal in his criticism of Bosco, so much that he was moved out of the region. Another colonel told me: "We have shed our blood for Kabila, we have remained loyal throughout the years - today we stay at home watching TV, and Bosco, the biggest traitor, is given a high ranking post!"
So the times may be changing for Bosco. He reportedly does not move around Goma without a large, muscular escort. The myth that he is a stabilizing force is slowly being discredited, and his is becoming an embarrassment, even to his friends in the Rwandan army next door (the UN Group of Experts report from December cites his complicity in minerals smuggling with the Rwandan government, which is intent on proving the conflict-free credentials of its supply chains). Those relations are crucial, and some Congolese army officers say that it will be easier for the Rwandans to arrest him, as they did with Nkunda, as that will ensure that the other ex-CNDP officers will stay in line.
9 comments:
- Anonymous said...
- Could the new grenades attacks in kigali be related to this?
- March 31, 2012 6:57 AM
- Anonymous said...
- Bosco a long with his former boss Laurent Nkunda are protected by Kabila and Kagame. As long as Kabila is in power, Bosco is going nowhere. he is roaming freely in Goma. The UN military mission know and see him. To change the dynamics, people who support these killers must be sanctioned as well. they are guilty by association.
- March 31, 2012 7:43 AM
- Anand said...
- Hey Jason - Thanks for the post. Couple of questions. "...the Rwandan government, which is intent on proving the conflict-free credentials of its supply chains)..." Do you feel the Rwandan government is sincere in this effort, or is this the official line, in order to show "the West" that they are trying to be compliant. What does arresting Bosco mean? Does it mean the same as arresting Nkunda? Because I am not sure how to characterize Nkunda's detainment. Seems like maybe Kinshasa and Kigali want to control the action by having Generals in the field that they can manipulate and control themselves. But they don't seem to have as much control as they think they do, so Bosco types "go rogue" for lack of a better term. Would his replacement(s) follow the same path? I am not trying to imply that taking Bosco out of the picture is a bad thing. But seems like the same "systems" will be in place in the Kivus. Also, do you think an attempt to arrest Bosco could lead to an escalation in conflicts?
- March 31, 2012 9:40 AM
- Anonymous said...
- When will the Bosco 2012 video be out?
- March 31, 2012 3:02 PM
- blaise said...
- lmao, that's awesome, bosco's video!!!! @ Anand, I'm not answering for Jason(who asked me anyway,lol), I just think it's an interesting question you are asking here: the sincerity of Rwanda. I don't know exactly what's going on inside Kagame's regime but from their actions I conclude that this regime will do whatever it's necessary to survive, even sacrifice it's own people. We have to give them credit for their organization and goal oriented approaches. They are ruthless and has an outstretch arm. From what I understand, one of their weakness is that for now they depend on foreign aids. They try to build an image of respectability. So, anytime the regime is associate to something that may taint their image, they will take their distance even that means sacrificing some soldiers.
- March 31, 2012 6:10 PM
- Anonymous said...
- I totally agree with Blaise. If Bosco becomes too much of a problem, Kagame will get rid of him and replace him with someone else just like he replaced Nkunda with Bosco when the new US administration came to power to show goodwill. Kagame recently arrested 2 or 3 high ranking military commanders of his army in relation with the minerals..... this is in my opinion is a preemptive move to show the international community that he is doing something about the issue.... Now Kagame can go to his Westerns backter or to the African Union and say: I have dome more than anybody in the region to solve the issue, I have arrested 3 high ranking officials, what has Kabila done nothing, so leave me alone as I am trying to do my best.
- March 31, 2012 9:42 PM
- Anand said...
- Blaise - Thanks for the comments. I am inclined to agree with your analysis (and the Anonymous poster after you). It seems that, again, we are confronted with treating symptoms of a larger problem. Not to say that it is not hugely significant if Bosco is arrested, surely it is. But as you say, we still must question the motivations of those in greater power. And as pointed out above, many actions are taken to "show" good will, even if they are really based on self interest. Motivation is everything in solving social and political issues. If a government's motivations are questionable, then the motivations of those applying pressure must be pure. In the case of the International community (governments of the West specifically) I would not say this is the case. Those in advocacy might have a pure agenda, but policy makers often don't. It's a tough issue. All the more reason the Congolese must find unity and leadership from within the country to create change.
- March 31, 2012 10:11 PM
- ghulam sarwar said...
- thank you for sharing
- April 1, 2012 4:05 AM
