The weekend saw a confusing situation
develop in North Kivu, with serious fighting breaking out for the first time
between Bosco's troops in Masisi and the Congolese army. The "mutineers," as
Bosco's forces are now being called, took the upper hand and took the towns of
Mweso, Mushaki and Karuba, and were even threatening the lakeside town of Sake,
the gateway to Goma. Meanwhile, the Congolese army appeared disorganized and
confused; the deputy regional commander, Col. Jonas Padiri, was stuck with
several other senior officers for almost a whole day before he could get back to
Sake.
In the meantime, troops loyal to Commander Sheka Ntaberi, a Mai-Mai
commander in Walikale, have also taken control of several towns in central
Walikale, as Congolese army troops have retreated from the area. The price of
food items is going up dramatically in Goma, as it is cut off from important
hinterlands, and thousands of people are fleeing from the violence. Rumors
abound, often contradicting each other - some say that Rwandan troops have
infiltrated to prop up Bosco, others conjecture that Bosco has struck a cynical
alliance with the FDLR.
But behind the bluster, a deeper story is
playing out. While the trigger of the conflict was Bosco's fear of being
arrested and taken to the Hague, it is unlikely that he would have been able to
mobilize this many troops without some help. Indeed, in the early days of his
mutiny, he appeared to have faltered, as many of his ex-CNDP comrades failed to
go along with him. Again and again, commanders mutinied only to see most of
their troops re-defect back to the government.
Then, however, something
appeared to change. The main mutineers - Cols. India Queen, Saddam, Zaire,
Baudouin, Butoni, Zimurinda - converged on the Masisi highlands, their home
turf. Some tactical mistakes were made by the Congolese army, such as giving
Col. Baudouin, a Bosco loyalist, a truck full of ammunition and tens of
thousands of dollars for supplies, only to see him reject his new assignment and
head back to join Bosco, arms and all.
But there is a deeper problem, one
that goes beyond just tactical mistakes and disorganization. Both Rwanda and the
ex-CNDP cadres can suffer to see Bosco go - after all, many have personal
quibbles with him. But they cannot suffer to see the CNDP networks and power
dismantled. And this is what was lurking on the horizon as Kabila brought in
loyalist troops ("special forces"), arrested prominent ex-CNDP allies, and
redeployed a few ex-CNDP commanders outside of the Kivus. Now, even ex-CNDP
commanders who had previously been hostile to Bosco are openly dismissive of the
offensive against him and express sympathy for his cause. In sum, the foundation
of the 2009 peace deal between Kigali, Kinshasa and the CNDP is being shaken.
We are likely in for some more fighting before the situation becomes any
clearer. For now, Gen. Gabriel Amisi (Commander of Land Forces) and Gen. Didier
Etumba (Commander of the Army) have arrived back in Goma to oversee the
operations themselves. Let's see what will happen.
Source: Congo Siasa, Monday, April 30, 2012
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