UGANDA: ‘Museveni succession is threat to stability’

Uncertainty over who will succeed President Yoweri Museveni, in power now for 25 years, stands as the singular most threat to Uganda’s future stability, a new report by an American research organisation has warned.

Titled, Assessing risk to stability in Sub-sharan Africa, the report says Mr Museveni’s decision to run for president or leave office in 2016 will be a determinant factor on the
country’s future stability.

“Either course, including a mismanaged or challenged succession process, would have the potential to cause major instability,” the report says, “a difficult political transition is looming. The big question is whether Mr Museveni will run again for a fifth elected term in 2016, when he will be 73 years old.”
The report is part of a series of reports on 10 other African countries commissioned by the US Africa Command.

It looks at how different dynamics could play to cause instability in the next 10 years. President Museveni has been in power since 1986 after a five-year guerilla war in Luwero. In 2016 Mr Museveni will be among the longest serving presidents in the world.

The report says the country’s stability is largely “tied up” in the personal position of Mr Museveni because of his highly “personalised” leadership of Uganda.

However, the army spokesperson, Lt. Col. Felix Kulayigye, said the biggest threat to Uganda’s future stability is terrorism, not succession.

“I don’t see that being a security threat because we have a Constitution that defines how presidents are succeeded and we, in the military understand these provisions of the Constitution. For us, we see terrorism as the greatest threat to our country,” he said.

The report notes that President Museveni’s patronage regime is likely to come under growing strain if the economy contracts, inflation remains high and government cannot reverse its declining records at providing basic social services to its citizens.

“The regime is hoping that oil export will provide revenue to sustain its network of support; but if production does not begin soon, the political coalition on which the regime bases may begin to fracture,” it warned.

The study describes Uganda as “a veneer of democracy,” marked by regular elections. “The Uganda government is in essence an authoritarian patronage-based regime, albeit one that can still count on considerable yet tepid support from a population for whom the memory of war and civil conflict is still fairly recent.”
The political opposition is described in the report as “disorganised” and “underfinanced”.

It predicts that in the short- to-medium term, the task of political management is going to become increasingly difficult for President Museveni as his style of rule is based on patronage that require constant flow of revenue or opportunity for corruption for support and maintain loyalty. The catch for the President is that the cost of maintaining loyalty is increasing while the source of revenue is drying up.

The report states that political breakdown triggered by a conflict over the political succession within the NRM is the most likely threat to the current government between now and 2016. It predicts that the succession debate will mostly likely fracture the party especially on the generation line as younger leaders assert themselves and confront President Museveni and his cohort around him.

The victory in the February elections, the report notes, is a turning point for the NRM party as its members will begin to look closely into the party internal democracy other than opposition.

It points the likely names in the line to succeed Museveni as Lt. Col. Muhoozi Kaneirugaba, but he will most likely face stiff opposition from the party and factions led by Prime Minister Amama Mbabazi, and Foreign Affairs Minister Sam Kutesa.

Author:  Residel Kasasira  (email the author)
Source: DailyMonitor, Posted  Sunday, July 24  2011 at  00:00